Thursday, 26 December 2013

History of Asylum Boat Arrivals in Australia

Asylum seeker boat arrivals have been a fraught topic in Australia over the years. It’s always been my view that living in a country which large numbers of people are willing risk all to get into is not such a bad problem to have. It is certainly nothing that a grown-up country can’t deal with, given a modicum of goodwill, humanity and common sense. As it is, the debate has generated far more heat than light.

A few months ago I put together what I consider to be a short, unbiased review of the topic to collect my thoughts and try to establish the facts in my mind. I’ve brought it up to date based upon reports in the Sydney Morning Herald and the ABC.

Background

The following chart shows numbers of asylum seekers arriving by boat from 1989 to 2012 (http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevevii77/9351383816/). Numbers are shown on a logarithmic scale to bring out the ups and downs prior to 2010. Anyone interested can get the numbers from the following source (http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/BoatArrivals#_Toc347230719 – scroll down to Appendix B) and put it into a linear scale if they wish.

The following links cover irregular asylum seeker arrivals by boat since mid-2013:

Potted History

1976 – 2001: End of Vietnam War to 9/11

There appears to have been minimal irregular arrivals of asylum seekers by boat prior to 1976:

·        1976 to 1979: about 2000 asylum seeker arrivals in total following the end of the Vietnam War. They were dealt with by the Fraser Government with bipartisan support, regional involvement and no moral panic.
·        1980 to 1988: 26 arrivals in 1981, none in other years, in spite of there being no mandatory detention and no offshore processing. The Iran-Iraq war and Soviets in Afghanistan apparently did not result in asylum seekers heading by boat to Australia.
·        1989: asylum boat arrivals start again, reaching about 200 per annum in 1990.
o   Asylum seekers become a concern to many Australians, but not the hot-button issue it was going to become later.
o   Mandatory detention was introduced by the Keating Government in 1992, which may have led to a dip in arrivals in 1993.
·        Arrivals surge from 1994 and average nearly 500 per annum from 1994 to 1998. This increase seems to be unconnected with any changes in Australian policies and probably reflects the international situation.
·        1996 – Howard Government elected in 1996. Asylum Seekers were not a major election issue.
·        Arrivals greatly increase from 1999, with over 12,000 asylum seekers arriving by boat from 1999 to 2001. Again, this seems to reflect the international situation and not to be connected to anything that Australia has done. Community concern about the issue heightens.
·        1999 – Temporary Protection Visas (TPVs) were introduced on 20/10/1999. This may have led to a dip in the numbers of arrivals in the following year, but arrivals escalate to unprecedented levels in 2001.

2001 – 2012: Controversy

During this period irregular arrivals of asylum seekers by boat was a hot-button topic in Australia. The issue became conflated with terrorism and Australia’s involvement in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

·        August 2001: the Tampa Affair
·        September 2001: September 11 attacks
·        Late 2001 - Pacific Solution introduced, which apparently stops the boats. A temporary improvement in the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq during 2002/3 following the downfall of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein probably also contributed. Numbers increase slowly to about 150 per annum by the end of the Howard era.
·        Early 2008 - Pacific Solution ended. This seemed to have had little immediate impact in 2008 but numbers of asylum boat arrivals bounce back to pre-Pacific Solution numbers from 2009. The end of the Sri Lanka Civil War (May 2009) probably contributed.
·        May 2011 - the Malaysia Solution mooted, which seems to have lead to a temporary dip in arrivals.
·        Late 2011 onwards - numbers surge to over triple previous records. This might be a combination of:
o   The collapse of the Malaysia Solution
o   Greater experience, sophistication and ruthlessness on the part of people-smugglers (the development of their 'business model')
o   A view that the Australia will not be 'open' much longer ('going out of business sale')
o   Plans for withdrawals of Western troops from Afghanistan
o   The rise of extreme fundamentalist Islam in Pakistan and elsewhere.
·        2012: The Pacific Solution reintroduced, which seems to have had no impact.

Since July 2013 – PNG Solution and Operation Sovereign Borders

·        July 2013: ‘PNG Solution’ was announced on 19/7/2013. After a lag of about a week, this led to a sharp drop in the rate of asylum boat arrivals, with what seems to be a steady decline since that time.
·        September 2013: Abbott Government elected September 7 and takes power September 18, with ‘Operation Sovereign Borders’ commencing on that date.
o   Asylum seeker arrivals by boat have continued, averaging about 90 a week, down from 500 to 1,000 in the first half of 2013.
o   As a result of the Australia Indonesia Spying Scandal, the Abbott Government has been unable to implement key planks of its Asylum Seeker Boat Arrival policy, including returning asylum seekers to Indonesia, while Indonesia has suspended its cooperation with Australia on asylum seekers.
o   The new Immigration Minister Scott Morrison credits the reduced levels to Operation Sovereign borders. The Opposition and many commentators believe that the continued low levels or irregular boat arrivals are entirely or almost entirely owing to the effectiveness of policies put in place by the former Labor Government, especially the PNG Solution.



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